Monday, April 28, 2008
Interesting article about an oil security that is going structurally defunct. Basically, UCR and DCR are designed to track crude oil prices with UCR rising if oil prices increase and DCR rising if oil prices decrease. Theoretically, these products should be able to co-exist as a teeter-totter with one rising as the other falls. What has happened is that the price of oil is so high that the math is breaking down at the top. A value vacuum has been created and the product is going to discontinue as of June 25. Not only very strange, but this is unfortunate giving the lack of product availability to commodities ETFs (see Gold).
Sunday, April 27, 2008

- What: Gold
- Play: Short gold (and any other precious metal). A commodity short is difficult to do with options. I have looked far and wide for an option chain on a gold ETF with little luck. There is a gold mining etf but this doesn't seem to have the bubble that the commodity does. I believe in this play strongly so I may have to short an equity here.
- Why: Completely overvalued. Subprime overreaction drove every baby boomer into the space. Poised to fall as things pick back up.
How can this last? http://www.bostonherald.com/business/general/view.bg?articleid=1089493

- Company: Research in Motion
- Play: Buying Sept '08 puts at 120
- Why: Parent company of Blackberry. Currently around all time high but Sony Ericsson, in its earnings release, cited sginificant slow down in sales of high end devices. Not to mention the loss of corporate orders.
- When: Looking to sell after RIMM earnings release in late June.
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