http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122841405751279981.html?mod

Citadel Down 13% in November

By GREGORY ZUCKERMAN and JENNY STRASBURG
A bad year for hedge-fund titan Kenneth Griffin got much worse last month.
Mr. Griffin's Citadel Investment Group lost about 13% in November, bringing the Chicago hedge fund giant's investment decline this year to 47%, according to investors.

hummm 47% sounds really familiar to another number....

I find it ironic that the big fancy multi-strategy market neutral hedge fund has a beta = 1 and exact same loss as the broader market. well played

Craziness

Given Lehman, everyone is glued to the CDS prices. A CDS is a credit default swap and essentially grants the holder credit protection against a counterparty: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_default_swap

Latest Bloomberg CDS prices and changes (over LIBOR):

Brokers:
GS 485/510 +160bps
MER 535/585 +200bps
MS 800/830 +320bps

Banks:
BAC 245/280 +45bps
JPM 235/270 +45bps
WB 725/765 +80bps
WFC 235/265 +40bps
WM 53/57pnts +5pts
Citi 370/400 +90bps
CSFB USA 90/100 +10bps

Europe:
DB 160/175 +60bps
Barc 190/200 +25bps
UBS 220/240 +50bps
RBS 200/220 +50bps
Credit Suisse Group 150/170 +40bps


One can interpret this as the market's view on who is next in line to fall (Morgan Stanley).

Also, I lost $500 yesterday :(

Sept.

Historically awful month:

Not a lot of new action for me. Still riding MBIA, NVDA, some SDD, recently put some savings in a AAA corp bond fund.

genuine alpha or unforseen beta

Still sitting in MBIA. Saw a lot of interest/volume at my $15 mark yesterday. People are starting to realize that this may not be far fetched for Jan '09. The price hasn't moved nearly as much as I would have hoped. The delta on this play is disgustingly low.....

Great idea

So much for financials hitting bottom... Sector down (3%) today.

MBIA has turned out to be a great play. The equity is up over 60% since entry. My option has not moved much though because the market is not pricing this as a sustainable gain.

At least I beat the professional money in....

Back in the game.... Biggest question out there: have financials hit bottom? Most saying no, I am saying yes.

Bought Jan 09 MBI $15 Call for $50 (2 lots). Strictly a technical play. The 52week high is around 70! Any retracement to even 10 in the next couple months could mean big $$. Some pnl and delta analysis is interesting (and difficult to interpret):


Monoline insurers :/

Hopefully Jan is far enough out for something to materialize

O how the tides change. RIMM plummeted on its earnings release. It is trading around 108 last time I checked. My puts (had I not exited) would be worth around $1700. Real gains of 112%. Insane. Really sad I missed out on making this money.

Check out this screenshot of RIMM on earnings day:



I have a bet in the office that the DOW reaches 4 digits within the month. Opening low and already in the 10k.

All my holdings are currently cash.....

RIMM pre earnings news: Outlook...
Glad I am out.

Don't have any trades in mind at the moment. The only smart play seems to be volatility which is hard to access. Right now oil buyers and sellers are just exchanging PnL back and forth each day it seems.

Been working a million hours lately so little time to play around.

Exited RIMM a couple days ago. Lost $80 overall.

I had really poor entry timing and didn't take profits when I had chance (I was up almost $400 at one point).

I liked my analysis and upped my short bet at the (then) 52 week high. Ballsy looking back. Overall, dad execution and happy to be out of the trade. I do have a very good feel for how RIMM moves and reacts.


Have about $2k sitting cash now.... Looking for a new play but very tentative given the volatility (see VIX)

Interesting tool here on the bottom of this page:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=msummary&cmd=show,iday[Y]&disp=SXA

The Bullish Percent Indices is a market breadth indicator that is calculated by dividing the number of stocks in a given group (an exchange, an industry, etc.) that are currently trading with Point and Figure buy signals, by the total number of stocks in that group.


A dip over 30% represents substantial overselling and a good opp to go long into a sector.

Crazy Day

Crazy market day.

Oil up +$11 to $139. Incredible call by Goldman commodities research to forecast $142 by the start of the summer. When that came out, I think it was at 120ish. There is now talk to a rally of > $150.

Gas at $6 a gallon in LA....


Huge drop in the Dow. Almost 400 points. Nuts.

Stocks of note today:
^VIX +26%
BCS -8%

Strong personal gains on my RIM Puts. May cash out after the release of the new Apple phone next week.

Back from a much needed vacation.... Out 4 business days and come back to:

In other news, this is wild (if they work):
http://seekingalpha.com/article/75593-triple-shot-leveraged-etfs-on-their-way

Great retracenent in RIMM yesterday. Made back over $100 from that disastrous day. Less than $80 away from break even and still 2 months out on my investment horizon. Still liking this move but my entry was ill-timed.

So much news setting up for a bad earnings release.

What: QLD - Nasdaq Double Long

Is it time to go double long the tech index? The technicals say it might not be bad as the current price is above the 20, 50, and 100 day moving average. Volume is high and steady as the buyers beat out the sellers. Fundamentals? Warren Buffet article in Barron's over the weekend talking about his bull prospective of the sector. Lastly, I am becoming bullish on the economy as a whole.

Still don't know about this. Will look into it more.

Sick playlist off my boy Bryant's page:

http://americanexcess.muxtape.com/

Definition of getting burned = Losing a quarter grand on a rainy Monday.

25% loss on one day.

Stinging

Tonight's party

http://www.musicislove.net/may9.html

Chevron vs. Exxon pairs play

These two companies move in step almost perfectly. This chart shows their historical movements:

The last couple of couple of days, they have begun to diverge:

A strong bet might be on the convergence of these two back to similar returns. Please note that these charts are percentage changes and not price so it is a little misleading.

I don't have nearly the capital to take advantage of this but someone probably could with the correct put on Chevron and call on Exxon.

Eaton Vance Floating Income Trust

Strong play for longer term investors (think IRA). Pays a monthly dividend that is between .5% and 1%. Great way to get a safe and stable 7-10% a year. There is also the possibility of gains due to the security rising.

Check it out:
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AEFT

Interesting article about an oil security that is going structurally defunct. Basically, UCR and DCR are designed to track crude oil prices with UCR rising if oil prices increase and DCR rising if oil prices decrease. Theoretically, these products should be able to co-exist as a teeter-totter with one rising as the other falls. What has happened is that the price of oil is so high that the math is breaking down at the top. A value vacuum has been created and the product is going to discontinue as of June 25. Not only very strange, but this is unfortunate giving the lack of product availability to commodities ETFs (see Gold).

• What: Gold
• Play: Short gold (and any other precious metal). A commodity short is difficult to do with options. I have looked far and wide for an option chain on a gold ETF with little luck. There is a gold mining etf but this doesn't seem to have the bubble that the commodity does. I believe in this play strongly so I may have to short an equity here.
• Why: Completely overvalued. Subprime overreaction drove every baby boomer into the space. Poised to fall as things pick back up.

How can this last? http://www.bostonherald.com/business/general/view.bg?articleid=1089493

• Company: Research in Motion
• Play: Buying Sept '08 puts at 120
• Why: Parent company of Blackberry. Currently around all time high but Sony Ericsson, in its earnings release, cited sginificant slow down in sales of high end devices. Not to mention the loss of corporate orders.
• When: Looking to sell after RIMM earnings release in late June.